Bairnsdale Race 1 Preview: Tips & Rated Prices Aug 4

The race

Bairnsdale opens its card on Tuesday with a 12-horse maiden over the mile, $32,000 up for grabs, jumping at 1:00pm AEST on a fine day with the rail out three metres the entire circuit. On paper it is a modest race, but the pace map turns it into a genuine puzzle worth studying.

The headline read is the tempo. The band is Fast with a pressure reading of 81.75 per cent, which is high. In plain terms, this shapes as a strongly-run mile, and a strongly-run mile punishes the horses that go forward and rewards the ones that settle and finish.

The pace picture

The PPIR figure tells you where a horse maps — the lower the number, the closer to the lead it settles. Pride Of Mandy sits on 1 off barrier 1 and maps to find the front, with Churchill Lane on 2 from barrier 5, Hirarkee on 3 and King Tagaloa on 4 from barrier 7 pressing close behind. With the speed predicted to be hot, the front is a hard place to be — and the tension of this race is that Kingsley's top two picks both map forward into it, banking on class holding off the swarm.

The swoopers benefit. Far From A Cry (PPIR 5), Venus Shock (6) and Steal Away (7) all get a race run to suit, though gates and finishing position still have to fall right.

Kingsley's selections

Churchill Lane is the No.1 pick, rated $4 against a market that has him longer, so Kingsley sees a touch of overs here. He was restrained and caught wide last start, made ground late, and reads better than the bare result. He drops into a maiden and maps just off the speed, which is the ideal spot given the tempo. His cruising speed of 76.1 — the sustained-pace figure — is fourth-best in the field, and his CAM of 71.28, the composite ability rating, is right among the top group.

Pride Of Mandy is the No.2 at a rated $4.6. She was held up when there looked more to give last start, drops in grade, and maps to grab the box seat from barrier 1. Blinkers come off for the first time. Her cruising speed of 77.1 is bettered only by the leaders.

Chosen Point is the No.3 at $11. He is first-up off a long spell but won a Sale trial, and he tops the field on CSW — the class-speed-weight time rating — with a mark of 78.62. That class edge into an easier race, plus a map that suits a swooper into a hot speed, makes his price look generous.

Far From A Cry rounds out the four at a rated $51. He is first-up and dropping sharply in trip from staying races, and rates well on CSW at 78.28. The hot speed sets up for a backmarker, but the wide, deep gate makes the run awkward, which is reflected in the price.

There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race.

The metrics that matter

Acceleration measures a horse's turn of foot when the race is on. The two standouts are near-identical: Venus Shock at 76.4 and Steal Away at 76.38, with Baldoni next on 71.43. In a strongly-run mile that finishing kick is worth plenty, and it is why Venus Shock is flagged as genuine upside — best acceleration in the field, excuses last start — even though he misses the top four.

On CAM, Venus Shock leads on 74.03, ahead of Churchill Lane on 71.28 and Steal Away on 70.72. On CSW, Chosen Point (78.62) heads Far From A Cry (78.28) and Pride Of Mandy (77.55). On cruising speed, King Tagaloa tops it at 79.9 with Hirarkee (79.1) next, but both map forward into a pace that works against them.

Churchillena, the Hayes-trained first-starter, has no metrics recorded and is doing it first go against horses with runs behind them, so despite early money she sits below the top picks.

What to watch

Whether Pride Of Mandy and Churchill Lane can control the race from the front despite the predicted hot tempo, or whether it falls late to a swooper like Chosen Point or Venus Shock.

Pre-race analysis, based on the rated card as published at send-live. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.