Flemington Race 8 Preview: Icelady Rated Over The Odds
Flemington Race 8 preview: a fast tempo, Icelady maps to lead and is rated $6 against an $8 market, plus Kingsley's top four and rated prices.
A $1,000,000 feature over 2500m, a 16-horse field, and a tempo reading that tells you this one will be run, not jogged. Here is how Kingsley has it rated.
The race
Flemington Race 8 jumps at 5:10pm AEDT on Thursday, 5 November 2026, for $1,000,000. Sixteen runners line up on a Good surface in fine weather with the rail out six metres for the entire circuit, and every runner carries 56kg, so the form is stripped back to ability, barrier and tempo. The weight-for-age-style level playing field matters here: with nothing to separate them in the saddle, the race shape does the separating.
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The pace picture
The tempo band is Fast and the pressure reading is 72.24 per cent, which is a genuinely strong gallop rather than a sprint home off a crawl. The predicted in-run figures (ppir, where 1 is the runner settling closest to the lead) have Icelady (2) at 1 — she maps to lead from barrier 4. Quick Finish (3) is next at 2, so the two speed horses are drawn alongside each other and one of them has to give. Salann (6) at 3 and Churchill Rose (7) at 4 complete the forward brigade, with De Armas (4) at 5 and Proxima Dea (1) at 6 just behind them.
That shape cuts both ways. A hot speed over 2500m gives the closers a target, which is exactly why Shameful Impulse (16) and Tharwa (15) read as interesting on paper — except their in-run figures of 14 and 16 have them a long way out of it, and in a 16-horse field at this trip, that is a lot of ground to make up.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Icelady (2), rated $6.00 against an $8.00 market this morning, and she is also an Official TKZ Tip. Last start she rolled forward and led with a rival hounding her every stride — the worst possible version of the race for a front-runner — and she still only went down 2.75 lengths when sent out at $3.60. Barrier 4 and Ethan Brown aboard means she gets to dictate on her own terms this time, and the Maher stable backs them up quickly as well as anyone.
His second pick is Proxima Dea (1), unbeaten in five and rated $2.30 with the market at $2.30, so no disagreement there. She is the best of them on the combined numbers and showed her toughness last time doing the work outside the leader before putting it away. The questions are obvious: barrier 15 of 16, and 500m further than she has ever gone.
His third pick is De Armas (4), rated $3.60 against a $3.10 market — a touch skinny for Kingsley's liking. She won here five days ago, hooked out from midfield and let rip off a genuine tempo, which is no fluke, and barrier 1 with James McDonald is the spot to be. His fourth pick is Salann (6), rated $81 against a $41 market, a mare who peaked on her rating running third here last start and remains 0 from 6.
The one he is happy to take on is Quick Finish (3), rated $18 against a $10 market. She has to roll forward and take on the speed over 2500m with the pressure on, and she owns the worst acceleration figure in the field.
Rolled forward and led here last start with one hounding her every stride, the shape of the race was all wrong for her and she still only went down 2.75L at $3.60. Backs up quickly for a stable that does it as well as anyone, Brown is a gun and barrier 4 means she gets to do it her own way. Well over the odds and an Official TKZ Tip.
5 from 5 and still unbeaten. Top-rated on CSW, best of them on the combined numbers and she showed her toughness last start doing the work outside the leader before putting it away. The obvious hurdle is barrier 15 of 16 and 500m further than she's ever been. Second pick and the biggest threat.
Won here 5 days ago, hooked out from midfield and let rip, no fluke off a genuine tempo. Rates right there on CSW, McDonald takes over and barrier 1 is the spot to be. Just a bit skinny for me at the quote. Third pick.
Peaked on her rating running 3rd here last start and the hot speed up front gives her something to chase down late. Trouble is she maps to get well back and she's still 0 from 6. Fourth pick.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Proxima Dea tops it at 93.48 from Shameful Impulse (90.57) and Churchill Rose (90.56). CSW rates class, speed and weight against the clock, and Proxima Dea leads that too on 92.12, with De Armas second on 88.95 and Quick Finish third on 87.02.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race, and Icelady is the best in the field at 98.4 — which is precisely why she can lead this and not be run off her feet. Quick Finish (96.9) and Churchill Rose (94.9) follow. Acceleration, the turn-of-foot number, belongs to Shameful Impulse at 96.58, with Proxima Dea second on 93.15 and Quynh third.
The screenshot line: the best cruising speed in the race is drawn in barrier 4 and maps to lead, and she is rated $6.00 against an $8.00 market.
What to watch: whether Quick Finish crosses to challenge Icelady early, because how much heat that costs the leader decides whether Proxima Dea's barrier 15 matters at all.
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